Pro: Profit on Treasurys
6 h ago
Surging Treasury yields near 5% create both volatility and income opportunities for investors, as the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate decision and persistent inflation keep bond markets on edge. The benchmark 10-year Treasury touched 5% on Monday, a high not seen since October 2023, before easing to around 4.96%. Bond yields move inversely to prices, and Wells Fargo Investment Institute's Luis Alvarado warns of continued knee-jerk reactions to economic data, the Fed, and oil. The market prices 90% odds of a rate hike at the Fed's two-day policy meeting ending Wednesday, with the latest CPI showing 3.4% annual inflation, above the Fed's 2% target. Experts advise avoiding long-duration bonds due to interest rate sensitivity. BondBloxx's JoAnne Bianco recommends short- to intermediate-term bonds, including BBB-rated corporates, high yield, and emerging market debt. Schwab's Collin Martin suggests staying below six years duration, noting the Schwab 1-5 Year Corporate Bond ETF offers a 4.95% SEC yield. For floating rate exposure, the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF yields 4.63%. Wells Fargo advocates a diversified fixed-income approach favoring investment-grade corporates, municipal bonds (iShares National Muni Bond ETF yields 3.73%), high yield, and dollar-denominated emerging market debt. Outside fixed income, dividend stocks and REITs present opportunities. Gilman Hill Asset Management's Jenny Harrington argues that dividend stocks offer inflation-beating growth, unlike bonds, and trade at muted valuations. Real estate investment trusts and infrastructure funds are also recommended, though REITs typically underperform when rates rise.