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Jamie Dimon Issues Economic Warning
**Jamie Dimon warns investors underestimate economic risks, says he wouldn't buy stocks or long-dated Treasurys at current prices** – The JPMorgan Chase CEO cautioned that markets are not fully pricing in geopolitical threats and fiscal dangers, including wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, U.S.-China tensions, and rising government deficits. In an interview released Monday, Dimon said it is difficult to know what risks are already reflected in asset prices, but that "what's not baked in is what actually happens." His warning contrasts with investor optimism that has driven the S&P 500 nearly 10% higher this year, supported by resilient consumer spending, moderating inflation, and the artificial intelligence trade. JPMorgan and its peers recently posted blockbuster quarterly results from surging trading and investment banking revenue. Dimon acknowledged the global economy is more resilient due to lower energy dependence but warned that a sudden tipping point remains possible. He predicted persistent U.S. budget deficits will eventually force interest rates higher as "bond vigilantes" demand greater compensation for government debt. Even if inflation falls to the Fed's 2% target, Dimon said the 10-year Treasury yield should be 4% to 4.5%, adding he sees little upside for bond prices. On equities, Dimon said he would not buy the broader market at current valuations, though he might consider individual stocks. Regarding AI, he compared today's spending boom to the early internet era, noting that while the investment may pay off overall, the timeline and winners are uncertain—citing how Yahoo and Netscape faded while Google and Facebook emerged later.