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How the Strait of Hormuz reopening could unfold if the U.S.-Iran deal is implemented
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could rise to nearly 50% of prewar levels within a month if the U.S.-Iran deal is implemented without major setbacks, according to analysts at trade data firm Kpler. Washington and Tehran are expected to sign a deal Friday in Switzerland that will reopen the strait and lift the U.S. naval blockade of Iran. Daily transits could increase to 40, compared to 100 before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28. About 20% of global oil supplies previously passed through the strait. An estimated 118 tankers stuck in the Persian Gulf that are fully loaded could exit within 15 days, but analysts caution this surge is a one-time event and not a durable increase. The key question is how many vessels will enter after the backlog clears. Matt Wright, Kpler’s lead freight analyst, said tankers entering the Gulf could reach 12 per day (50% of prewar levels) in the first 30 days if cautious shippers wait to see how initial transits go. Insurance rates are expected to drop once vessels start moving. However, risks threaten the reopening. U.S. and Iranian interpretations of the deal differ: Iranian state media says ships can transit toll-free for 60 days, after which Iran and Oman will administer the strait, while Vice President JD Vance told CNBC the U.S. expects long-term toll-free passage. The threat of mines remains unclear. President Donald Trump downplayed it, but Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Congress that Iran mined large segments of the strait. The global shipping group Bimco warned Monday that the mine threat is still a concern, and chief safety officer Jakob Larsen said the security situation remains volatile and risky for ships to commence transits. Despite this, Frontline CEO Lars Barstad told CNBC that vessels will move quickly once the deal is signed.