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Pro: Salt's the new oil
Morgan Stanley predicts a surge in demand for sodium-ion batteries, positioning salt as a valuable commodity. Analyst Jack Lu forecasts that sodium-ion batteries will capture 20% of the total battery deployment market by 2030, rising to 37% by 2035, compared to an expected 2% share next year. Lu describes this as the "New Oil Age," highlighting that sodium-ion batteries are 30% to 40% cheaper than lithium iron phosphate batteries and perform better in cold weather. The market is projected to grow from a pilot stage to 830 gigawatt hours globally by 2030, expanding to 2.4 terawatt hours by 2035. This growth will require approximately $800 billion in new investments by 2035. Lu emphasizes that in an AI-driven, power-intensive world, sodium-ion batteries address the critical bottleneck where energy security meets AI, redefining energy security and disrupting both new deployments and existing infrastructure. He expects industry incumbents to leverage customer relationships, global capacity, and R&D to capture the low-end market and push sodium-ion batteries into higher-value applications. Another Morgan Stanley analyst, Andrew Percoco, notes that sodium is widely available and inexpensive in the U.S., enabling companies to bring production back domestically. General Motors has an early foothold through a partnership with Peak Energy to develop next-generation sodium-ion batteries, granting GM exclusive U.S. manufacturing rights and the option to license to a contract manufacturer. GM expects grid-scale energy storage deployment after 2028, with potential applications in defense or mobility. Despite a nearly 4% decline in GM shares this year, following gains of over 52% in 2025 and 48% in 2024, Wall Street anticipates a rebound, with analysts giving a buy rating and expecting a 20% share price increase.